Fifth International Conference on Advances in Civil, Structural and Mechanical Engineering - CSM 2017
Author(s) : FLIPPO LANDI , PAOLO FORMICHI , PIETRO CROCE , ROBERTO CASTELLUCCIO
As consequence of global warming extreme weather events might become more frequent and severe across the globe. The evaluation of the impact of climate change on extremes is then a crucial issue for the resilience of infrastructures and buildings and is a key challenge for adaptation planning. In order to assess changes in extreme maximum a nd minimum air temperatures, Regional Climate Models outputs and observed data series have been analyzed and a new technique for the assessment of climate model uncertainty has been developed. Considering different radiation scenarios , s ome results are pre sented for the Italian Mediterranean region proving the ability of the method to define factors of change for climate extremes as well as to assess their evolution in time , allowing at the same time to estimate the uncertainty range of the model . Extending the analysis to different climate models it will be possible to take into account in climate change impact study also model uncertainty in response to same radiative forcing.